= Confounding the Unfamiliar with the Improbable =
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Page 419 of Nate Silver's 2012 book "The Signal and the Noise" contains this quote from Thomas Schelling's foreword to Roberta Wohlstetter's 1962 "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision":

 . There is a tendency on our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable.  The contingency we have not considered seriously looks strange;  what looks strange is thought improbable; what is improbably need not be considered seriously.