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When Apollo went to the Moon, 8 trillion 2015 dollars had been spent worldwide developing usable rockets, and a Saturn V could put 120 tons in low earth orbit. Apollo cost $120 billion in 2015 dollars, and moonwalks cost a billion 2015 dollars per hour, per astronaut. There were 86 space launches in 1994, and 78 in 2013, with total 2010 global space revenues (including military) of 64 billion dollars. When Apollo went to the Moon, 8 trillion 2015 dollars had been spent worldwide developing usable rockets, and a Saturn V could put 120 tons in low earth orbit. Apollo cost $120 billion in 2015 dollars, and moonwalks cost a billion 2015 dollars per hour, per astronaut. There were 86 space launches in 1994, and 78 in 2013, with total 2010 global space revenues (including military) of 64 billion dollars.  The world's largest launchers in 2014 were the 23 ton-to-LEO Russian Proton, and the similar US Delta IV.

Server Sky - Energy in Space, Information on Earth

Tuesday May 5, 2015 700PM, Multnomah County Library

OrL5Abstract


Why isn't space growing? Every decade brings new disappointments followed by new promises. We were supposed to have L5 colonies in 1995, private spaceports, $100,000 suborbital trips.

When Apollo went to the Moon, 8 trillion 2015 dollars had been spent worldwide developing usable rockets, and a Saturn V could put 120 tons in low earth orbit. Apollo cost $120 billion in 2015 dollars, and moonwalks cost a billion 2015 dollars per hour, per astronaut. There were 86 space launches in 1994, and 78 in 2013, with total 2010 global space revenues (including military) of 64 billion dollars. The world's largest launchers in 2014 were the 23 ton-to-LEO Russian Proton, and the similar US Delta IV.

The semiconductor industry was small in the sixties, and Apollo consumed a significant fraction of global output before 1970. Global sales were 3.4 billion dollars in 1976, $295B in 2010, and $335B in 2014. The number of transistors per integrated circuit is increasing far faster, and total integrated circuit transistor production grows 70% per year, 200 times increase per decade. There are 1200 quintillion transistors in the world today (1.2E21), and Moore's Law growth shows no signs of stopping, in spite of decades of claims that the end was near. There are more transistors in my USB flash drive than existed worldwide during Apollo.

What if we bet our space future on transistors, not new rockets? What would space look like with 70% increased value per year?

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OrL5Abstract (last edited 2015-05-03 17:02:08 by KeithLofstrom)