Server Sky - Energy in Space, Information on Earth
Tuesday May 5, 2015 700PM, Multnomah County Library
OrL5Abstract
Why isn't space growing? Every decade brings new disappointments followed by new claims. We were supposed to have L5 colonies in 1995, private spaceports, $100,000 suborbital trips. In 2013, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy was to launch "later this year".
Great ideas, but Space is HARD. The actual results are increased costs, and diminished launch performance. Our largest rockets are evolutions of designs begun more than half a century ago, the 23-ton-to-LEO Russian Proton (1965) and US Delta (1960), less than 20% of the capacity of the Saturn V. Communication satellites are still the main application, evolutions of the 1962 Telstar design, handwired boxes of trailing-edge electronics resembling 1960s aircraft. We launch about 200 tons to orbit per year.
Meanwhile, the global semiconductor industry grew from the first planar integrated circuit in 1960 to 335 billion dollars in 2014, five times the size of the space industry. Output is soaring - we've made 1 sextillion transistors (1E21), an amount increasing 70% a year, 200 times larger per decade. There are more transistors in a cheap USB flash drive than existed worldwide during Apollo.
What if we bet our space future on new transistors, not new rockets? What would space look like with 70% increased value per year?
Server sky proposes to radically increase the value per kilogram of satellite launched to orbit, radically increasing the value delivered per launch dollar. Coupled to fast growing global markets, this will rapidly expand launch rates, the only proven way to lower per-kilogram launch cost.
Server sky