SpaceX, launching thinsats

This is a summary of data at http://www.spacex.com, plus some estimates for M288 and M480 thinsat launches

MORE LATER - Server sky estimated launch

How Cheap Can It Get?

To an outside observer, the main added value for SpaceX will be high automation, mass production, and relentless logistic improvements. If SpaceX can run a rocket program the way PayPal runs an online bank, they will launch a lot of payload while improving performance and reliability with a small staff. For the physical aspects of production, I hope they copy best practices from the electronics industry. A rocket is like a very large cell phone, and can be put together with larger robots. Massive amounts of flight telemetry from many flights can be assembled into reliability models, improving launch yield while reducing expensive defects.

Assume 6 grams per thinsat (including a fraction of the stack dispenser). Assume 6000kg to M288 for a Falcon 9. The spaceX web page does not give stage dry weight for the Falcon 9, so we will guess. Assume a Falcon 9 with a 10 to 1 propellant to weight ratio. That means 300,000 kg of propellants, 27,000 kg of tanks and engines and avonics, and 6000 kg of payload. Assuming $2/kg for RP4 and $0.20/kg for LOX, and a 25%/75% weight ratio (slightly fuel-rich), the propellant cost is $0.65 per kilogram. The propellant weight will cost about $200,000.

The dry weight is expensive; while SpaceX assumes return and re-use, that will require extra hardware, the weight of which comes right out of the payload fraction. Further, mechanisms wear out. Designing them for many flights will mean stronger construction, more weight, and more rework of damaged systems between flights. Metal is cheap; aluminum is $2/kg, carbon fiber is $11/kg, glass fiber is $2/kg, etc. With enough automation, the dry weight might cost an additional $300,000 , materials and labor. If SpaceX gets good at this, they might be able to sell a flight for $6M and still make an 80% profit. If they get really good at this, payloads will show up, get tested and mated and launched by robots, with just a salesperson and a range safety operator (who sweeps floors between flights). We can dream, anyway ...

That works out to $1000/kg to M288, and $6 per thinsat launch cost.

If thinsats can be made much thinner, with space debris or lunar ballast added by already deployed dispensers in orbit, the launch weight can drop below a gram and the launch cost below a dollar per thinsat.

An additional three orders of magnitude cost reduction may someday be provided by the launch loop, along with lunar glass substrates, and in-orbit automated assembly and repair. In the long run, only the semiconductor die and the thin film InP solar cells need be launched, a few milligrams per thinsat.