The Great Surge

The Ascent of the Developing World

Steven Radelet, Simon & Schuster 2015, CedarMill 338.9 Radelet

Most (but not all) of the world's developing nations have made fast progress since 1990 or so. Even subtracting China and the other Asian tigers, much of the rest of the world is getting educated, healthier, wealthier, more free and more secure.

Assume "today" in text means 2013

• p005 In 1993, 2 billion < $1.25/day (2005 prices), in 2011, 1 billion, 52% to 17% of developing country populations (China much of that), income doubled in two decades

• p006 modest or better growth: 1980s 20 countries, mid 90s 70 countries out of 109 developing countries
• p006 deaths before 5th birthday: 1960 22%, 2013 5% / Child deaths from preventable disease: 1990 13M, 2013 6.3M / Life expectancy: 1960 50y, 2013 66y
• p006 girls completing primary school: 1980 50%, 2013 80% / developing country democracies: 1983 17, 2013 56 / civil wars cut in half, battle deaths cut 75%
• p008 still many problems, a long way to go, but pessimism peddlers ignore the improvements
• p013 history traps, microstudies, poverty traps
• p016 changes: cold war end, trade and opportunity, skill and leadership
• p024 whole world in poverty before 1800
• p026 US poverty def $16/day
• p028 graph total poor peaked at 1.3B 1950-1990, plunge to 0.5B in 2010
• p030 graph percentage from 50% in 1981 to 15% in 2011

• p033 poverty -> weakness, sickness, medical costs -> more poverty

• p035 China under Deng

• p040 shifting income brackets, halving < $1.25/day, doubling > $2/day

• p047 Safaricom, M-Pesa (pesa is swahili for money)
• p049 graph: 1994 - negative growth countries went from 51% to 10%
• p055 graph: 1980-2015 commodity prices 90% to 130% variation, per capita GDP climbs 70%
• p062 Hartwick's rule: wealth is capital assets minus natural asset depletion
  • p063 Venezuela, in 5 years, natural capital declined 12%, and wealth declined as well
• p071 worlds 20 richest vs 109 developing: income ratio 8x in 1994, 6x in 2011 (unweighted for China and India, with weighting even more drop)
• p077 longer lives less deaths, fertility drops to match
• p085 graph: child mortality reduced by 85%, fertility reduced by 55%, population growth by 50%
• p093 graph: life expectancy increases at all income levels (outliers shown, presumably AIDS)
• p110 graph: vast rise in multiparty elected legislatures
• p116, 117 graphs: vast drop in wars. Big plunge corresponds with the fall of the Soviet Union
• p148 strong dictatorships now perceived as failures
• p157 trade and investments skyrocket. Foreign Direct Investment was $26B in 1990, $600B in 2013
• p175 2012 5 billion mobile phones
• p177 Kerala fishermen with cell phones find best markets, 8% increase in profits, 4% drop in consumer prices

• p193 graph: Countries with >20% inflation: 50 in 1994, 5 in 2004

• p194 graph: Tariffs: 1983 38%, 2010 9%
• p195 graph: Ag incentives: 1980 -12%, 2010 +4%
• p196 graph: Business startup cost per capita income: 2003 138%, 2013 37%
• p202 Landlocked (by bad neighbor) countries (Nepal, Afghanistan, Bolivia, Niger, etc) have fewer economic options
• p211 Malaria eradication - great gains then neglect
• p224 before 1995, aid had no obvious impact on growth, but improving now
• p227 Aid inflows 10% of GDP increase long term annual growth by more than 1% (Paul Collier, Oxford)